The Brazilian economy ended a dismal year with a 1.4 percent sequential decline, rounding off a 3.8 percent decline in real GDP in full-year 2015. On a year-ago basis, the economy contracted 5.9 percent in Q4 2015.
As Bad as It Gets
To say that 2015 was a dismal year for the Brazilian economy sounds like an understatement. The Brazilian economy contracted 3.8 percent in 2015, the largest decline in at least 25 years. Real GDP fell 1.4 percent on a sequential basis in Q4 2015, steepening the year-over-year rate of decline to 5.9 percent.
Prospects for this Year Remain Dim
Our expectation for this year is for further declines in activity, as we forecast GDP will drop another 2.0 percentage points in 2016. Perhaps the only sector that could improve during this year is Brazilian exports, as Brazil may be able to take advantage of the important improvement in competitiveness due to the significant depreciation of the real.
Read the complete commentary here: brazil-gdp-q4-20160303